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Scenario Planning
Ok. I’ve sat in on enough planning meetings to last a lifetime. Most were a useless waste of time. Few resulted in any systemic change. Virtually all went into a binder and then we quickly, collectively and conveniently forgotten where we put it. So let’s “find a better mousetrap!”
Scenario planning [or scenario thinking or scenario analysis] is a strategic planning method that organizations use to make flexible, long-term plans.
Rather than guessing the behavior of an opponent, the emphasis is re-directed toward a focus on future change within the industry. It includes systems thinking, which appreciates that multiple factors may combine in unique ways to result in unexpected futures. Those factors, that are otherwise hard to structure, may include unique insights about the future, deep shifts in core values, unexpected regulations or incredible new inventions.
The focus here is on:
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Deciding on the key question to be answered by the analysis.
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Determining if the question is based on small changes or a very few number of elements (if so, strategic planning may be more appropriate).
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Setting the time and scope of the analysis. The usual time frame of 3-5 years may be outmoded because of the speed with which change is occurring.
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Identifying major stakeholders and their current needs.
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Brainstorming and researching basic trends and driving forces,
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Finding key uncertainties,
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Checking for the possibility to group the linked forces into the two most important and present in an axis diagram.
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Identifying the extremes of the possible outcomes of the (two) driving forces and checking the dimensions for internal consistency, plausibility, time frame, and stakeholder acceptance.
The results allow you to define and plot 2 to 4 scenarios on a grid, if possible. One approach can be to create all positive elements into one scenario and all negative elements (relative to the current situation) in another scenario, trying to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios. Then write out the scenarios, identify and complete research gaps, develop quantitative methods and converge towards decision scenarios.
Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is the process of determining an organizations long-term goals and then identifying the best approach to achieving those goals.
The focus here is more on:
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Where are we?
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What do we have to work with?
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Where do we want to be?
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How do we get there?
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How do we get everyone on the same page?
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What are the priorities?
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How do we resolve conflicts?
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How do we put that into a written plan?
The results here are:
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Defining your mission, vision and core values,
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Establishing realistic goals and objectives,
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Figuring out how you’re going to accomplish # 2,
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Developing a way to communicate goals and objectives to constituents,
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Providing a base to measure progress,
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Building consensus about where your organization is going,
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Creating a model that produces more efficiency and effectiveness,
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Building strong teams in the board, executive and staff,
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Creating common language around a common vision,
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Solving major problems.
So why do you need my help? Maybe you don’t. But I bet if you don’t it’s because you have already done all this on your own. If not, I can assist by serving as:
1. Coach - Active direction throughout the process.
2. Facilitator - Assistance dealing with difficult phases.
3. Trainer - Explaining the process.
4. Strategist - Actively helping to set strategy.
You have to “Inspect what you expect” and set a path or “how will you know when you get there?”
Let’s talk. There are no dumb questions. Unless you’re unwilling to ask them!
Call me at 1-505-977-1947 or e-mail me at randygleasonconsulting@gmail.com